Weekly Forex Analysis 01 April 2019

Fears of a recession and Brexit continued dominating the headlines last week. Here the highlights for the next week.

The Brexit drama continued in full force as Parliament forced “indicative votes.” Fears of a recession continued amid unimpressive data from the US and from other countries.

Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 1:45. The world’s second-largest economy is slowing down and markets are eyeing the severity of the situation.

Euro-zone inflation: Monday, 9:00. Euro-zone inflation is not going anywhere fast.

US Retail Sales: Monday, 12:30. Consumption is critical to the US economy.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. The first hint towards Friday’s NFP comes early in the week.

Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not change its interest rate since 2016 but has made a dovish shift, indicating that the bias is no longer towards raising rates.

US Durable Good Orders: Tuesday, 12:30. Orders of durable goods represent investment and are watched closely by the Fed.

US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00.

ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 11:30.

US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The US jobs report for February was a big disappointment on the headline: a meager 20K positions were added to the world’s largest economy.

The Canadian jobs report Friday, 12:30. Contrary to the US, Canada continued its winning streak of employment reports in February, with an increase of no less than 55.9K jobs.

*All times are GMT

Economic Calendar

The Bank of England

The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. It was established in 1694 and was privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalized in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE’s main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable.

The European Central Bank (ECB)

The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is the one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council, and the General Council. Mario Draghi, a member of the Executive Board, is also the President of this organism.

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)

The Federal Reserve System (Fed) which is the central banking system of the United States. Fed has two main targets: to keep unemployment rate to their lowest possible levels and inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System’s structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors, partially presidentially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions. Also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.



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